Posted November 10, 2014 Ioannis Polonyfis
October was a really good month for me and I am happy for winning the prize. The competition was really tough and there was no clear winner until the last day. I am sure that driving a Ferrari will be an amazing experience and I am looking forward to getting to booking in my experience.
I have tried really hard to identify profitable trades during this month. Since there was no clear direction in flies and condors, I focused on the price action in order to spot and take advantage of small opportunities that appear in the oil markets. Relying on my focus and speed to spot the opportunities that may only exist for less than a second.
Looking forward to November, I am hoping to continue trading well and potentially retain my crown as trader of the month. This new competition is really fun and helping to motivate all of us on the trading floor to compete and do better than each other. I will continue to improve my strategy and I will stay focussed and determined, to help me identify any patterns in the markets, trying to make the most out of my positions.
At the moment I think that there are many key factors driving the direction of the oil prices, which are currently on multi year lows having fallen a lot recently. On one hand, the winter demand is expected to lift the prices, with another cold winter in the US being a possibility. The oil producing countries are struggling at the current prices and it is possible that OPEC will not want prices to go down a lot more. On the other hand, the shale gas boom combined with the weak economic data around the world, imply that the prices have not reached the bottom yet. The strength of the Dollar, which seems likely to continue, is also bringing down the price of Oil. During the next weeks, I will definitely not trade based on the direction of the outrights and I will try to take advantage of small ranges and trends that are apparent intra-day and intra-week in spreads, flies and condors, until there is a more clear trend in the direction of oil markets.