Blog

Gerhard Hartwig

Ongoing Greek Turmoil

Negotiations between Greece and the Euro zone have been dominating the news headlines for last few weeks and with good reason. Yanis Varoufakis, the new Greek finance minister, has been trying to exit the current bailout programme provided to the previous Greek government by the ECB. The new Greek government, led by the far leftist Syriza party, came to power on the back of promises to end the austerity measures as required by the ECB bailout programme.

Anand Giani

Has the fall in Oil ended?

Has the fall in Oil ended?

Since June 2014, crude oil dropped nearly 60%. Only 5 times in the past have prices dropped more than 30%.

Ashley Chadwick

Fall of the Euro

In recent months the Euro has weakened to twelve year lows in the face of QE announced by the ECB back in January. Further exacerbated by strong data coming out of the US indicating the potential for at least one rate hike from the FOMC by September. The Euro briefly fell to below $1.05 in trading on Wednesday 11^th March. Unsurprisingly the Euro is continuing to weaken against the Pound as well, exceeding €1.4:£1, a move of nearly 20% in the last twelve months.

Thomas Meikle

ECB commences QE

ECB President Mario Draghi is famous for insisting in 2012 that he would do anything to save the euro. This comment calmed the markets and as a result little action was required, but it only succeeded in buying time for the Eurozone.

Hector Ketley

REPORT: Draghi’s QE: Should we get our hopes up?

This hint was aimed at the universally anticipated QE measures which had been a hot topic in business news. This is a conceptually simple programme where money is electronically printed and used to buy up bonds in the Eurozone. There are two primary ways in which this action can help to reinvigorate a stalling Eurozone: currency depreciation and liquidity easing.

Ashley Chadwick

UK set for EU referendum

The recent UK election produced the first Conservative majority for 23 years and with UKIP managing nearly 4 million votes, a 13% share, it is clear that talk of EU membership is not going to disappear any time soon.

Pietro Belotti

Greece debt talks go on

This week, Athens submitted a revised reform plan to the EU and IMF, after Tsipras rejected a set of reforms put forward by Jean-Claude Juncker.

Rui Rodrigues

China Cuts rates

Last Friday China’s central bank surprised the world by cutting its interest rates for the sixth time since November, to help jumpstart its slowing economy. The lending rate was lowered 25 basis points to 4.35%, the deposit rate was also cut 25 basis points to 1.5%, and the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 50 basis points to 18%.

Joshua Marsh

Has QE helped in Europe

The ECB has been running its own QE programme since March 2015, buying €60bn worth of government bonds from around Europe every single month and will continue to do so until at least September 2016. Their main aim was to eventually meet their inflation target of close to, but not exceeding, 2%, after the Eurozone fell into deflation last December. But nine months down the line, has this actually worked as well as the ECB had hoped back in January?

Dimitrios Theodorikas

Commodity Bounce

It has been a very volatile period for commodities since August 2015. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comments in September that a hike in interest rates before the end of 2015 is very likely, put the U.S. economy back on the path to normality after years of rock-bottom interest rates. This news made Brent and WTI oil prices reach their highest levels for several months.  

Nick Hanspal

Why haven’t the U.S. raised interest rates?

At the beginning of 2015, the likelihood of an imminent increase in the U.S. interest rate seemed high. The unemployment rate had been gradually falling from its high of 10% in October 2009, to 5.7% in January 2015. On December 17th 2014, the Fed revealed that its long term full employment rate target was between 5-5.2%. With the most recent September unemployment rate revealed as 5.1%, it seems that full employment for the US is within reach. This along with a healthy GDP growth rate in Q2 2015 of 3.9%, above the expected 3.7%, indicates that the US economy is performing well.

Alex Sholarin

REPORT: Abenomics: The true solution to reviving the Japanese economy?

Drastic overhaul was needed to resuscitate the Japanese economy and Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, believed he had found the answer. Abenomics is the broad term given to the economic policies proposed by Abe after his re-election into office in December 2012. It centres around three main tenets: aggressive fiscal stimulus, unprecedented monetary easing and fundamental structural reform aimed at consolidating Japan’s role as the economic powerhouse of the Asia-Pacific region.  

Ashley Chadwick

Modi Mania

As ‘Modi Mania’ spreads both within India and globally, it remains to be seen whether this business friendly leader is the one to make India a global powerhouse.

Ashley Chadwick

Oil ahead of OPEC meeting

With less than two weeks to go until the next OPEC meeting, on December 4^th in Vienna, there is a lot of speculation over what decision the group may make.

Calin Basno

ECB decision day

The past months in the Eurozone have had a grim look overall as Portugal stalled, Germany slowed and Greece has contracted under its debt payments. Growth has been below expectations, and falling in comparison to early 2015.

Robert Dallyn

December FOMC rate hike on the cards.

With the Federal Reserve’s December meeting of the 15/16^th fast approaching, there’s been a lot of speculation as to the possibility of America seeing interest rates rise above 0.25% for the first time since the crash.

Ashley Chadwick

MPC keep rates on hold again

The Monetary Policy committee has voted to keep rates on hold for the 82^nd consecutive month. The decision was as expected, with the most recent CPI print of -0.1% in October.

Ashley Chadwick

How Brexit would impact the EU

Whilst Britain leaving the EU would have dramatic impacts for Britain, the rest of the EU has to think about how it could dampen EU activity. A vote to leave in June would send major financial and political shockwaves through Europe.

Klark Schoburgh

Donald Trump reveals Economic plan

Donald trump revealed his economic plans this week which drew an unsurprising mixed reaction. He proposed a cut in top tier tax, cut in corporation tax, and an axe to regulation.

Jugraj Deol

Apple Pays, or not?

After a three-year investigation, the European commission has found Apple’s “sweetheart” tax agreement with Ireland to be illegal and concluded Apple will have to pay back £13billion in taxes.

Ashley Chadwick

Draghi and What He Did Not Discuss

The European Central Bank decided to stand pat today on all key rates and their bond buying. The refinancing rate and deposit rate remain at 0% and -0.4% respectively and bond buying remained at 80 billion a month until March.

Ben McDonald

OPEC prepares for Vienna

On September 29^th in Algeria, OPEC announced that production cuts would be required to push prices up to ensure stability in these OPEC nations. However deals of who will take the burden of the cut are unclear. These individual member production cuts/limits would be fleshed out in a Technical meeting in Vienna this weekend (27^th – 28^th October) and finalised in the ordinary OPEC meeting on the 30^th of November.

Ashley Chadwick

Inflation Set To Rise Sharply

Inflation is set to rise as high as 4% in late 2017, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Ashley Chadwick

Fallout From Trump's Victory

Unsurprisingly, the shock Trump victory has caused wide spread volatility in the financial markets. The victory for Trump is just another sign of the anti establishment feeling spreading around the Globe.

Perhaps the people having the worst day of anyone right now are the pollsters.

Ashley Chadwick

Brexit talk sends Sterling lower

Prime Minister Theresa May has been downplaying talk that there will be a ‘Hard Brexit’, despite comments from the weekend indicating that the UK could well leave the single market.

Ashley Chadwick

The Limited Impact Of Brexit So Far

Prior to the referendum last year, there were a lot of gloomy forecasts about what would happen to the UK economy if there was a vote to leave the EU. Recently, those who published these forecasts have come under pressure for being too negative in predictions in an attempt to influence the vote.